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Scoring system described for Alligator Hunts here:

2K views 14 replies 11 participants last post by  dsr377 
#1 ·
There is alot of discussion about how the preference point system works. THere are literally 100's of ways to design a points system. The premise is ( and you alligator hunters asked for it, I might add, although not all of you asked for it) that the more you apply and the less that you get drawn over time then the more likely you are to get drawn.

Jason Price, our IT Biologist, who produced our points scoring formula, explained to me me that the system is kinda like golf, the lower your score the better your chances. This being our first year, found a tremendous number of applicants with a very low score (actually a negative number ie, 0.75) however some people had a score as high as 198 because they had applied maybe 5 times and had been drawn twice in the same zone. By the way, you have a score for the Pearl and the Pascagoula if you have applied for both and neither score will effect the other. In other words if you got drawn in the past on the Pascagoula, but never on the Pearl, then your score would be higher for the Pasc and lower for the Pearl.

This year there were more than enough people with a negative digit score to fill all available slots. So, if you had a positive number score, you would not get drawn this year, but your score will drop each time you apply and do not get drawn in the future. Each time you get drawn your score will get significantly higher which will greatly decrease your chance the following year.

JASON DESCRIBES HIS SYSTEM VERY WELL HERE:
1. The weighting system is based entirely on your average win/loss percentage across each hunt on a specific area. It does not include attendance if you were drawn the previous year and did or did not show up for your hunt. It is weighted per WMA (or Pearl / Pascagoula) for gators so your win / loss percentage for Pascagoula does not affect your score for Pearl. The "algorithm" weights your applications based on number of years applied, total winning applications and total applications. It also gives a little extra weight to people who put in consistently every year. In other words first and second year applicants don't automatically get drawn just because they were not drawn before. For example if hunter A put in 5 years and has been drawn 1 previous year his score will be better than hunter B who has only put in 1 or 2 years but has never been drawn.

2. The drawing/weighting system is not what was being tested for alligators. It is the same weighting system that I developed for the WMA drawings last year so it has been tested extensively. However, this is the first year for the alligator draw to use the weighting system because it was not in place until after the gator draw last year. What Flynt and I were testing was the previous year?s history data to ensure it was correctly in the system and that correct id numbers were used to score all the previous year?s applications. I certainly could have created those histories before yesterday morning, but I was too busy playing Atari with TheStump to mess with them. [laugh]

3. I am not a computer programmer, I am a wildlife biologist that can hack at a computer with enough hammer to eventually get the thing to do what it is supposed to. I have been hacking at computers and developing database applications long enough now to understand a little about business rules though so the statement -

?but when you go to an input screen and it can't handle leading zeroes in a drivers license number or dashes in a SSN, I just go.. what tha ????? This is embarrassing that this is the best web interface my state can muster?

makes me chuckle. Sure we could make the SSN field a text field and allow every crazy number combination in the world with dashes, leading 0s, commas, colons, spaces, etc. That would certainly make initial development easier and data entry easier, but what do you think would happen if your key relational field didn?t have business rules to ensure data integrity? Would the text 123-45-6789 match in a SQL relate to 123456789? How much overhead do you think it requires to store that text based number versus the integer number? Those business rules are designed to stop ?garbage in? problems. I could write a java app that would clean up all the different ways people enter SSN/DL, but in my common sense ******* mind it is easier to just ask the applicant to enter a number. (On a side note the gator applications are done through POS and not in-house so I have no control over how they behave).

4. I?m sure someone trained in the computer sciences could make the drawing program more efficient, but they would also demand much more money that I do. Would you be willing to pay an additional $50,000 to speed up the drawing process from 15 minutes to 2 minutes? The biggest time consuming part is going through the applications and making sure there are no duplicates and that the data is clean. The most time consuming part of the actual computer drawing (in terms of processing time) is a) checking applicants for more than 3 WMAs, b) checking to make sure someone doesn't get drawn on the same day on different WMAs and c) creating the temp tables to store each applicants score. For the alligator drawing the program wouldn't have to perform a and b, but in my mind it isn't worth modifying the application to save a few minutes of processing time on just those 2 hunts.

I realize the drawing system is not perfect and never will make everyone happy, but I have tweaked and made changes to it every year to make it more fair, speed up the process and save money. Good luck to those drawn and hopefully I will see you out on the water again this year. I got some good pictures last year.
 
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#2 ·
Thanks for the info. Very well explained and seeing as how I have put in for four of the last five hunts and not been drawn, your system beat my bad luck with a stick and sent it packing! Thanks to all you guys for the help.

Hey Stump, question about classes. Have been to one class with a friend that got drawn in goula, (you may remember us, first tagged alligator caught) so had to take class there. This year I to have been drawn in goula. Question is do I have to take class there or can I take it here in Jackson? No rush, I know your as busy as a three legged dog playin frisbee! Or if that info is already posted somewhere let me know, if ya dont mind!! Thanks!!
 
#6 ·
This year there were more than enough people with a negative digit score to fill all available slots.
With this it is no longer a lottery. MDWFP knew who the tags where going to before the computer made the draw. Basically you are simply spending $14 per year until you have spent enough to buy into a spot. Why don't you just auction them of to the highest bidder?
 
#7 ·
Random thoughts.

I would think the most dramatic change would be seen in the first couple years after the weighted system is implemented and the people who have applied and never been drawn would almost be automatic selections. After a couple years it would become more like a non weighted draw where all of the regular entrants would score pretty evenly. I assume that people who enter for the first time would basically be a zero and someone who had entered 4 times and been picked once would score better based on their history of participation.

I don't have any past experience in this area, but the first thing that popped into my mind was an NBA lottery type system where you get an extra ticket in the draw for every year you entered but were not drawn. Somehow the system described seems to give people who previously participated a significant advantage. I would have to consult a math major to know which method favors the previously unselected applicant more.

Anyhow, thanks for your explanation and efforts.
 
#8 ·
I think the first year would see the most dramatic impact. Now that a bunch of us that have put in for years without being drawn have been drawn, the chances for everyone else will be much greater next year.......and we'll be at theback of the pack again. I would imagine that after 2 or 3 years with this system, anyone who has been putting in for the drawing for several years will get drawn. All newcomers will have little chance their first time or two applying. I got drawn this year....so I'm liking it. But I reserve the right to complain next year.[biggrin]
 
#9 ·
So basically $10,425 was raised through the lottery. With 120 tags for pearl and 140 tags for pascagoula that comes to 260 tags total. So essentially MDWFP made $40.10 per tag from the lottery. Why not just sell the tags outright for a $100-$200 or so and make more money? It would give those who are really serious a chance to do it every year and make MDWFP more money for the program. All the equipment and fees/licenses necessary to hunt are really expensive anyway. I'd rather pay $200 to be sure and get a tag than have to wait another year to possibly get drawn.. Not to mention would be simpler for everyone
 
#10 ·
hust said:
Why not just sell the tags outright for a $100-$200 or so and make more money? It would give those who are really serious a chance to do it every year and make MDWFP more money for the program. All the equipment and fees/licenses necessary to hunt are really expensive anyway. I'd rather pay $200 to be sure and get a tag than have to wait another year to possibly get drawn.. Not to mention would be simpler for everyone
you don't think that there are over 120 people that would pay $200 a tag? presumably, if you put in for a tag, even though you only pay $5 for the chance, you are willing to pay $125 for the real tag. If you weren't, then I would hope that you wouldn't waste $5 to put your name in the hat.

so assuming that there are more than 120 people that would pay $200 for a tag, how would you decide who gets picked? first come first served? that would disadvantage people that had to work or that happened to be out of town at the time or any number of other things.

Bottom line is this is the best way to do it. I was one of those with a score of 198 this year and probably won't get picked for several years again. do I care? no. we have 15 people that put in every year and we have yet to strike out. I'm sure Team Amos Moses is the same way. I personally don't care if I am the one being picked, I just want to go out there and be a part of the experience.
 
#12 ·
duhwhat said:
Lawdog.. I'm curious about how you handle 15 members when there is only one or two tags? Who gets to go in a 4 - 6 man capacity boat(s)? I have tried that tag along in another boat stuff and didn't find it to my liking much.
not everyone in the group knows each other. We know about 15 people that love to do it, but don't have the means. me and my friend have the boat and all the supplies. If someone gets picked, they get to invite 1 or 2 people to come with them on the boat. If two are picked, we assess the situation and if two boats are needed, I take my boat, Dan takes his and we help each other. This year, we have two tags on the pearl first weekend and are only taking one boat. Just gonna devote each night to a different person. that's how the tag holders wanted to do it.

I hope that answered your question.
 
#13 ·
It was just a suggestion. We have a group that always puts in. We all go together as well no matter which one gets picked. I could care less if the tag is mine. The boat, equipment, fuel, and time required to hunt is so costly that I hate not gettin drawn can shut it down for a year. I just would rather pay alot for a tag than risk missing a year with all the equipment. I would buy even if it was $500. It's more of a group thing than an individual. We all pool our resources and don't wanna cut anyone out. I'm sure there are alot out there that don't have groups but I'm sure there are just as many who are just like me. I have no problem with the system now, just trying to think of better and simpler ways for everyone. MDWFP and Stump do an excellent job with this program.
 
#14 ·
Team Amos Moses has 8 members. I drew a tag this year for the first time for the Pearl hunt. I could care less if the tag is mine or another members tag. It is all about the group and doing it together.

We do take two boats as well. Works for us. Not the same as having all in one boat, but 8 folks in my boat is just not a good thing!!!!

Gatorman
Team Amos Moses
 
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